Guest Blogger: This Insights article was contributed by Dr. William Sackley, Director of BB&T Center for Global Capitalism and Cameron School of Business Professor of Finance (this post originally appeared on WilmingtonBiz.com on July 15, 2020).

The stock market, as gauged by the S&P 500 index, just completed its strongest calendar quarter of appreciation during the 21st century, albeit following a dismal first quarter. At this writing, the index is down just over 4% year-to-date, or just over 8% from its February high. That is fairly amazing in the presence of a global pandemic that appears to be escalating rather than abating in the U.S., and which has resulted in a larger disruption of economic activity than during any downturn subsequent to the Great Depression. Should investors be complacent about their equity exposure at this point, or “heading for the exits?”

Story notes contributed by Cetin Ciner, Professor in Finance at the UNCW Cameron School of Business.

Cetin Ciner, Ph.D. professor of finance at UNCW Cameron School of Business has “Stock Return Predictability in the time of COVID-19” accepted for publication in Finance Research Letters, which is rated A by the Australian Business Dean’s Council.

(Photo: Dr. Bill Sackley with students in the Financial Trading Room of the Computer Information Systems building)

Guest Blogger: Dr. Cetin Ciner, professor of finance at the Cameron School of Business 

Stock prices, if determined in rational and operationally efficient markets, should reflect future profits. Since the earnings of corporations should be highly correlated with economic activity, stock-price changes should reflect the market’s expectations of economic growth.